Even though Midwesterners are currently enjoying warm temperatures and sunny days, Ball State meteorology professor David Call is urging people to starting preparing for the upcoming winter. Based on recent forecasts, it promises to be a real doozy.
"The long range forecast calls for near average temperatures with above average precipitation," he says. "The large-scale setup of the atmosphere looks similar to last year. Given that winter 2010-2011 was one of the top 10 snowiest winters for many cities, including Indianapolis, I suggest being ready for another stormy winter."
Call points out that most long range forecasts are made by using standard forecast techniques and are based on computer model simulation. These are usually accurate but limited.
"They can tell us correctly that a winter will be a warm or cold one, wet or dry, but they don't tell us if a snowstorm will disrupt Christmas travel or if it will be absurdly cold one month even though the others are all warm. Often the short term extremes such as record cold snaps and major snowstorms are most memorable and disruptive, and predicting these this far out is not possible."
Contact Call at firstname.lastname@example.org , (office) 765-285-1768 or (cell) 765-702-1621.
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