INDEPENDENTS DISAGREE WITH SUPREME COURT RULING

Election Impact

According to a survey by StrategyOne, U.S. adults who identify as political Independents disagree with the Supreme Court’s recent ruling on the Affordable Care Act. While opinion of the decision is generally polarized by party – 66% of Republicans disagree with the ruling; 71% of Democrats agree – Independents are more aligned with Republicans. Fully 46% of Independents disagree with the ruling, while only 35% agree. Intensity among Independents is also strongly against the ruling, with 35% saying they strongly disagree and just 12% strongly agreeing.

Steve Lombardo, global CEO of StrategyOne, believes negative reaction among Independents could assist Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney come Election Day. According to Lombardo, Independent opposition to the Supreme Court decision “suggests that the Roberts ruling has the potential to move swing voters and the GOP base toward Romney.”

Additionally, a majority (52%) of adults say they are more likely to vote in the presidential election as a result of the decision. The Supreme Court’s actions appear to have a greater impact on Romney supporters. Among those voting for Romney, 49% say they are much more likely to vote because of the SCOTUS ruling, compared to 38% of President Obama’s supporters. Those who disagree with the ruling are also more inclined to say the decision makes them much more likely to vote (43%) compared to those who agree with the ruling (35%).

Lombardo sees this enthusiasm gap between those opposing the ruling and those supporting it also benefiting the GOP in the election. “If the electorate looks more like 2010 than 2008, it will be a big boost for Romney,” added Lombardo.

According to the StrategyOne survey, U.S. adults overall are slightly more likely to agree with the Supreme Court’s ruling on the Affordable Care Act than disagree. Fully 48% of respondents agree with the decision, while 41% disagree.

Survey Methodology
StrategyOne conducted a nationwide telephone survey of 1,022 adults, 510 men and 512 women 18 years of age and older, living in the continental United States. All interviews were undertaken using computer assisted telephone interviewing (CATI) technology. A total of 772 interviews were conducted among landline respondents, and 250 interviews were conducted among cell phone respondents. Results are weighted to represent the U.S. population using data from the Current Population Survey on age, gender, race, region, and education from the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS). The overall margin of sampling error for the total N of 1,022 is +/- 3.5.

About StrategyOne Inc.
StrategyOne is an insights-driven strategic consulting firm owned by Daniel J. Edelman, the world’s largest independent PR company. StrategyOne provides evidence-based stakeholder insights, analysis and media measurement to corporate, organizational and governmental clients globally. The firm specializes in reputation, branding and communications research. Headquartered in Washington, DC, StrategyOne also has U.S. offices in Atlanta, Chicago, Houston, New York, Rochester (NY), San Francisco, Seattle, and San Mateo. International StrategyOne offices are located in Abu Dhabi, Brussels, Dubai, London and Paris. Visit www.strategyone.com for more information.