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Germany Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Industry Report Q2 2015

One of the largest markets in Europe, Germany will continue to experience rising demand for
pharmaceuticals, sustained by an ageing population with a strong bias towards patented medicines. In spite of this, additional restrictions on reimbursement, tempered by government’s desire to preserve an industry integral to Germany’s positive balance of trade and international prestige, will nonetheless constrain revenues and intensify already fierce competition amongst drug makers. As such, drug makers will perceive a positive, but deteriorating German operating environment, marked by intensifying price competition, increasingly burdensome regulation and an economic environment particularly susceptible to sudden external shocks.

Headline Expenditure Projections

·   Pharmaceuticals: from EUR39.95bn (USD53.53bn) in 2014 to EU39.83bn (USD49.79bn) in 2015; -0.3% in local currency terms and -7.0% in US dollar terms. Downwards from Q115

·   Healthcare: from EUR310.11bn (USD415.54) in 2014 to EUR317.41bn (USD396.76bn) in 2015; +2.4% in local currency terms and -4.5% in US dollar terms. Upwards in local currency from Q115

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Table Of Contents

Industry View 7
SWOT 9
Political 9
Economic . 10
Operational Risk 11
Industry Forecast 12
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast . 12
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (Germany 2011-2019) 13
Healthcare Market Forecast . 14
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Germany 2011-2019) 16
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Germany 2011-2019) 16
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Germany 2011-2019) 17
Prescription Drug Market Forecast 18
Table: Retail Pharmaceutical Expenditure, 2003-2010 (EURbn) 19
Table: Retail Pharmaceutical Expenditure, 2003-2010 (Packages, ms) 19
Table: Retail Pharmaceutical Expenditure, 2003-2010 (Average Price per Pack, EUR) 20
Patented Drug Market Forecast 21
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Germany 2011-2019) 23
Generic Drug Market Forecast 24
Table: Generic Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data and Forecasts (Germany 2011-2019) 26
OTC Medicine Market Forecast 27
Table: Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Germany 2011-2019) 28
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast 29
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (Germany 2013-2019) 30
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts local currency (Germany 2013-2019) 31
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario 32
Macroeconomic Forecasts 33
Economic Analysis . 33
Table: Selected Operation Risk Index Scores (100=Most Competitive) 34
Table: Germany GDP By Expenditure 37
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 38
Western Europe Risk/Reward Index 38
Germany Risk/Reward Index . 43
Rewards . 43
Risks 43
Market Overview 45
Industry Trends And Developments 47
Epidemiology 47
Healthcare Sector 48
Health Insurance . 49
Healthcare Sector Reforms . 49
Table: Healthcare Resources 51
Table: Healthcare Activity 51
Table: Healthcare Personnel 51
Research & Development 52
Biotechnology Sector 56
Clinical Trials 57
Regulatory Development 59
Intellectual Property Regime 60
Pricing Regime 62
Table: Price Build-Up In The German Pharmaceutical Market 63
Reimbursement Regime . 65
Parallel Imports 68
Competitive Landscape 70
Wholesale Sector . 72
Retail Sector . 72
Company Profile . 73
Pfizer 73
GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) 76
Bayer Health Care . 78
Sanofi 82
Merck KGaA 85
Merck & Co . 88
Boehringer Ingelheim 90
Grünenthal 94
STADA Arzneimittel 96
Demographic Forecast . 100
Demographic Outlook 100
Table: Population Headline Indicators (Germany 1990-2025) 101
Table: Key Population Ratios (Germany 1990-2025) 101
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Germany 1990-2025) 102
Table: Population By Age Group (Germany 1990-2025) 102
Table: Population By Age Group % (Germany 1990-2025) 103
Glossary . 105
Methodology 107
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model 107
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model . 107
Notes On Methodology 108
Risk/Reward Index Methodology 109
Index Overview 110
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Index Indicators 110
Indicator Weightings 111

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