Brazil Power Market Analysis & 2016 Forecasts

Brazil, one of the world's fastest growing economies and the largest power market in South America is moving towards the sustainable development of power sector in future. In the light of its growing power demands, the markets for other sources like natural gas, wind, solar energy are going to expand in addition to the growth of hydro energy, on which most of Brazil's power depends. Over the coming few years there will be an increase in the inflow of cash for building new transmission and distribution lines and revamping the old ones, presenting a wide variety of opportunities for financial and technical service providers. The Brazilian power segment was privatized in 1997 but even after 15 years the government has an upper hand, which along with many other factors, makes the investors wary. 

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The whole power scenario of Brazil has come a long way from being a state controlled underinvested sector to a competitive privatized market. The sector which used to be dominated by government policies and regulations, like in any other developing country, has now become an exciting and dynamic open market. The power generation in Brazil is dominated by hydro power which account for more than 70% of the overall installed capacity in recent years. The total installed capacity was around 116 GW by end of 2011, the largest in Latin America and third largest in America region after U.S and Canada. 

The future of Brazil's power sector will be focused on generation of power from sources other than hydro. By 2020 the consumption is forecasted to grow by more than 500 TWh and it will require sources like wind, solar, biomass to contribute to the supply. Thus, coming years will see heavy investment, change in government's policies in favor of these sources and auctions that will be dominated by wind and solar. Apart from developing different sources of power generation there are some issues that need to be tackled by the government which will ensure adequate and fair supply of power to all.

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Table of Contents

1. Brazil Power Sector Landscape
1.1 Power Sector Overview
1.2 Power Sector Institutional Structure
1.3 Renewable Energy Initiatives

2. Power Sector Performance Indicators
2.1 Installed Capacity by Fuel & Region
2.2 Power Consumption by Sectors & Consumer Group
2.3 Power Generation by Fuel & Region
2.4 Status of Power Projects: Under Construction & Operation

3. Integration of Smart Grid Technologies

4. Power Sector Fuel Resources & Reserves
4.1 Coal
4.2 Uranium
4.3 Natural Gas
4.4 Hydraulic
4.5 Wind
4.6 Oil

5. Power Grid - National Interconnected System (SIN)

6. Shifting Power Sector Dynamics
6.1 Focus on Renewable Energy
6.2 Energy Sector Reforms
6.3 Increasing Investments
6.4 Transmission & Distribution Losses
6.5 Power Sector Cost Structure

7. Power Sector Future Outlook 2016
7.1 Installed Capacity
7.2 Electricity Consumption By Region & Consumer Group

8. Power Sector Programs & Plans
8.1 Alternative Energy Source Incentive Program (PROINFA)
8.2 Ten Year Plan for Energy Expansion- PDE 2020
8.3 Transmission Expansion Program (PET), 2011-2015
8.4 National Energy Conservation Program (PROCEL)
8.5 The National Energy Plan 2030 (PNE 2030)
8.6 Universal Access To and The Use of Electric Power

9. Regulatory & Policy Framework
9.1 New Electric Industry Model Law
9.2 Ministry of Mines and Energy (MME)
9.3 Electricity Regulatory Agency (ANEEL)
9.4 National Council of Energy (CNPE)
9.5 Chamber of Electrical Energy Commercialization (CCEE)

10. Competitive Landscape
10.1 Companhia Energetica de Sao Paulo (CESP)
10.2 Centrais Eletricas Brasileiras (Eletrobras)
10.3 Companhia Energetica de Minas Gerais (CEMIG)
10.4 Tractebel Energia 
10.5 Companhia Paranaense de Energia (COPEL)
10.6 CPFL Energia
10.7 Espírito Santo Centrais Elétricas(Escelsa)
10.8 Companhia de Transmissao de Energia Eletrica Paulista (CTEEP)
10.9 Iberdrola

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List of Figures

Figure 1-1: Institutional Arrangement of Brazilian Power Sector
Figure 2-1: Cumulative Installed Capacity (GW), 2008-2011
Figure 2 2: Cumulative Installed Capacity by Fuel, 2011
Figure 2 3: Cumulative Installed Capacity by Fuel, June' 2012
Figure 2 4: Power Sector Cumulative Installed Capacity by Region (GW), 2009-2010
Figure 2 5: Power Consumption (TWh), 2008-2011
Figure 2-6: Power Consumption by Residential, Commercial, Industrial, & Other Sectors (%), 2011
Figure 2-7: Power Consumption by Region (TWh), 2009-2011*
Figure 2-8: North Region Power Consumption by Sector (TWh), 2011
Figure 2-9: Northeast Region Power Consumption by Sector (TWh), 2011
Figure 2-10: Southeast Region Power Consumption by Sector (TWh), 2011
Figure 2-11: South Region Power Consumption by Sector (TWh), 2011
Figure 2-12: Midwest Region Power Consumption by Sector (TWh), 2011
Figure 2-13: Power Generation (TWh), 2008-2011
Figure 2-14: Power Generation by Fuel, 2010
Figure 2-15: Power Generation by Region, 2010
Figure 2-16: Number of Operating Power Plants by Fuel, June'2012
Figure 4-1: Coal Reserves (Billion Tons), 2008-2010
Figure 4-2: Distribution of the Brazilian Uranium Reserves
Figure 4-3: Natural Gas Reserves (Trillion Cubic Feet), 2008-2011
Figure 4-4: Hydraulic Potential by Region (GW)
Figure 4-5: Itaipu Power Generation (GWh), 2008-2011
Figure 4-6: Onshore Wind Power Potential (GW)
Figure 4-7: Wind Power Potential by Region (GW)
Figure 4- 8: Oil Reserves (bbl), 2008-2011
Figure 6- 1: Share of Wind Power in Total Installed Power Capacity, 2010 & 2014
Figure 6-2: Investment in Oil & Gas, Power and Biofuel Segment (Billion BRL), 2011 to 2020
Figure 6-3: Power Sector Investments (Billion BRL), 2011 to 2020
Figure 6-4: Transmission & Distribution Loss (GWh), 2008 - 2011
Figure 6-5: Electricity Cost Breakdown (%)
Figure 7-1: Forecast for Installed Capacity (GW), 2012-2016
Figure 7-2: Forecast For Electricity Consumption (TWh), 2012-2016
Figure 7-3: Forecast For Electricity Consumption by Region (TWh), 2012-2016
Figure 7-4: Forecast For North Region Electricity Consumption by Consumer Group (TWh), 2012-2016
Figure 7-5: Forecast For North East Region Electricity Consumption by Consumer Group (TWh), 2012-2016
Figure 7-6: Forecast For South East Region Electricity Consumption by Consumer Group (TWh), 2012-2016
Figure 7-7: Forecast For South Region Electricity Consumption by Consumer Group (TWh), 2012-2016
Figure 7-8: Forecast For Midwest Region Electricity Consumption by Consumer Group (TWh), 2012-2016
Figure 8-1: Investments in Major Transmission Lines Between 2011 & 2015
Figure 8-2: Investment in New Substation by Region
Figure 8-3: Power Sector Consumption Target 2030
Figure 8-4: Cumulative Installed Capacity Target 2030 by Fuel (GW), 2030
Figure 8-5: Distribution, Transmission & Generation Sector investments (BRL Billion), 2030

List of Tables

Table 1-1: Power Sector Transformation Scenario 
Table 2-1: Power Generation by Fuel (TWh), 2009 & 2010 
Table 3-1: Status of Nuclear Power Plant - Angra1, Angra2 & Angra3