JSB Market Research: MK-1602 (Migraine) - Forecast and Market Analysis to 2023


The migraine market is saturated with generic drugs, and the remaining branded products already on the market are expected to lose exclusivity during the next few years, with the exception of Botox for chronic migraine, which is expected to maintain its leading position in terms of sales. However, reformulations of mature products as well as new classes of therapies are anticipated to launch during the forecast period and these will contribute to the market growth. By 2023, the migraine market will grow to $3.7 billion at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.6%, with the US continuing to dominate the market as a result of higher drug prices and a large migraine population. Some of the new treatments are expected to target the key unmet needs but opportunities will remain for further treatment choices especially drugs that will offer an improved safety and side-effects profile.

MK-1602 (Migraine) - Forecast and Market Analysis to 2023, under development by Merck, is a calcitonin gene-related peptide (CGRP) receptor antagonist. It is a member of a new class of therapy for the acute treatment of migraine, called the gepants. CGRP is a vasoactive neuropeptide whose receptors are widely distributed in the peripheral and central nervous systems such as the trigeminovascular complex, thalamus, hypothalamus and trigeminal ganglion (Hoffmann and Goadsby, 2012). CGRP has been indicated as a key mediator of migraine pathology by several lines of evidence.

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- Overview of Migraine, including epidemiology, etiology, symptoms, diagnosis, pathology and treatment guidelines as well as an overview on the competitive landscape.

- Detailed information on MK-1602 including product description, safety and efficacy profiles as well as a SWOT analysis.

- Sales forecast for MK-1602 for the top seven countries from 2012 to 2023.

- Sales information covered for the US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the UK and Japan.

Reasons to buy

- Understand and capitalize by identifying products that are most likely to ensure a robust return

- Stay ahead of the competition by understanding the changing competitive landscape for Migraine

- Effectively plan your M&A and partnership strategies by identifying drugs with the most promising sales potential

- Make more informed business decisions from insightful and in-depth analysis of MK-1602 performance

- Obtain sales forecast for MK-1602 from 2012-2023 in the top seven countries (the US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the UK and Japan).

Table of Contents:

2 Introduction 9
2.1 Catalyst 9
2.2 Related Reports 9
2.3 Upcoming Related Reports 11
3 Disease Overview 12
3.1 Etiology and Pathophysiology 14
3.1.1 Etiology 14
3.1.2 Pathophysiology 15
3.1.3 Prognosis 16
3.2 Symptoms 16
3.2.1 Premonitory Phase 16
3.2.2 Aura Phase 17
3.2.3 Headache Phase 18
3.2.4 Postdrome Phase 18
4 Disease Management 19
4.1 Treatment Overview 19
4.1.1 Acute Migraine Treatment 22
4.1.2 Preventive Migraine Treatment 23
5 Competitive Assessment 24
5.1 Overview 24
5.2 Strategic Competitor Assessment 25

List of Tables

Table 1: Classification of Migraine Subtypes 13
Table 2: Diagnostic Criteria for Migraine with Aura 17
Table 3: Diagnostic Criteria for Migraine without Aura 18
Table 4: Treatment Guidelines for Migraine 20
Table 5: Most Prescribed Drugs for Migraine by Class in the Major Markets, 2013 21
Table 6: Overall Unmet Needs - Current Level of Attainment 26
Table 7: Clinical Unmet Needs - Gap Analysis, 2013 30
Table 8: Migraine - Promising Late-Stage Pipeline, 2013 34
Table 9: Comparison of Therapeutic Classes in Development for Migraine, 2013 36
Table 10: Product Profile - MK-1602 38
Table 11: MK-1602 SWOT Analysis, 2013 41
Table 12: Global Sales Forecasts ($m) for MK-1602, 2012-2023 42
Table 13: Physicians Surveyed, By Country 52

List of Figures

Figure 1: Migraine Treatment Algorithm in the 7MM 21
Figure 2: Competitive Assessment of Late-Stage Pipeline Agents in Migraine, 2012-2023 35

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