The market value for HER2-negative breast cancer therapeutics will increase more than fourfold, from $1.45 billion in 2013 to an estimated $6.12 billion by 2023, as the treatment landscape shifts from chemotherapy to hormone therapies.
Reportstack's latest report "PharmaPoint: HER2-Negative Breast Cancer ? Global Drug Forecast and Market Analysis to 2023" states that this growth, which will occur across eight major markets (the US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, Japan and China) at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 15.5%, will largely be driven by the launch of several premium-priced products and their rapid acceptance and reimbursement across various settings.
One of GlobalData’s Analyst covering Oncology, says that three of the most exciting classes of premium-priced products due to launch during the forecast period include the CDK4/6 and PI3K inhibitors in the hormone receptor-positive (HR+) setting and PARP inhibitors in the BRCA mutation positive subset of the triple negative breast cancer (TNBC) setting. These drugs are expected to account for $5.1 billion and 84% of global HER2-negative breast cancer treatment sales by 2023.
“By the end of the forecast period, CDK4/6 and PI3K inhibitors will account for $3.6 billion and 79% of global sales in the HR+ setting, while PARP inhibitors will account for $1.02 billion and 94% of the market for TNBC treatment.
“We believe Pfizer will dominate the HR+ setting, largely as a result of palbociclib being the first CDK 4/6 inhibitor to market, which will be accelerated by the US Food and Drug Administration’s breakthrough therapy designation.”
The analyst adds that AstraZeneca will become the market leader in TNBC treatment with the launch of its PARP inhibitor, Lynparza, despite the drug not being the first to market in this class.
“AstraZeneca’s position as a pharmaceutical giant with a strong portfolio of now-generic hormonal therapies will allow it to dominate this setting, with 79% of peak-year Lynparza sales coming from the adjuvant setting.
“However, it should be noted that although AstraZeneca will be the clear market leader in the TNBC setting by 2023, Lynparza will only be used in the niche population of patients with a BRCA-positive tumor.”
Complete report available @ PharmaPoint: HER2-Negative Breast Cancer ? Global Drug Forecast and Market Analysis to 2023.