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Milk and Flavoured Milk - China - April 2014


The milk market has been in the process of reshuffle with many large-scale merger and acquisition deals were agreed in 2013. The tightening regulations and stricter rules implemented by the government aiming at ensuring the quality of milk products tend to indirectly encourage the reshuffle of this market. In the near future, small operators are likely to face increasing pressures resulting in further consolidation.

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Table of content

Introduction

Definition

Methodology

Abbreviations

Executive Summary

The market

Figure 1: Value retail sales of milk and flavoured milk in China, 2008-18

Figure 2: Volume retail sales of milk and flavoured milk in China, 2008-18

Market drivers

Ageing population and the new wave of baby boom drive demand up

Urbanisation fuels milk consumption

Healthy lifestyles gain popularity

Shortage of supply and growing labour costs drive the price up

Scandals in the milk industry drive demand for freshness up

Mixed feelings: Opportunities and pressures faced by imported milk

Companies, brands and innovation

Figure 3: Manufacturers’ value shares in the milk and flavoured milk products retail market, 2011 and 2012

Figure 4: Manufacturers’ volume shares in the milk and flavoured milk products retail market, 2011 and 2012

The consumer

Premium milk is gaining momentum

Figure 5: The change of frequency of buying milk in the last six months, January 2014

Pasteurised milk enjoys a healthy image and associations with the original taste

Figure 6: Qualities associated with different types of milk, January 2014

Milk is a popular drink to start or finish the day

Figure 7: Milk drinking occasions, January 2014

Organic and freshness claims could encourage consumers to spend more

Figure 8: Features to encourage consumers to pay more for liquid milk, January 2014

Concerns over the quality of milk powders remain strong

Figure 9: Attitudes towards milk powder, January 2014

Detailed information of milk products needed

Figure 10: Attitudes towards safety, January 2014

Imported milk remains a safer choice than domestic counterparts

Figure 11: Attitudes towards imported brands, January 2014

Premium liquid milk enjoys positive perceptions

Figure 12: Attitudes towards pricing and gifting, January 2014

Key issues

Issues and Insights

Premium milk tends to be more relevant in the gifting market for the old

The facts

Implications

Figure 13: Selected attitudes towards premium milk, by age, January 2014

Pasteurised milk shows bright future with its fresh and healthy image

The facts

Implications

Using social media and customised products to target the young

The facts

Implications

Figure 14: Attitudes towards safety, by age, January 2014

Milk drinks for men – the uncharted water with potential

The facts

Implications

Figure 15: Selected milk drinking occasions, by gender, January 2014

Trend Applications

Trend: Prove it

Trend: Man in the Mirror

Mintel futures: Brand Intervention

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Market Drivers

Key points

Ageing population and the new wave of baby boom drive demand up

Figure 16: Population structure of China, by age, 2000-12

Figure 17: High-calcium milk powder for senior and elderly groups, Q2 2012

Figure 18: Happy Prince’s milk powder product for students, January 2014

Urbanisation fuels milk consumption

Figure 19: Disposable income of urban residents and urban population in China, 2000-11

Healthy lifestyles gain popularity

Shortage of supply and growing labour costs drive the price up

Figure 20: Average retail prices of milk in China, 2013-14

Scandals in the milk industry drive demand for freshness up

Mixed feelings: opportunities and pressures faced by imported milk

The opportunities

The challenges

Figure 21: International milk prices, 2012-14

Who’s Innovating?

Key points

Range extension and new production innovation remain popular

Figure 22: New product launches in the China milk market, by launch type, 2011-13

Cartons become increasingly popular as package for milk products

Figure 23: New launches in the China milk market, by types of packaging, 2011-13

Figure 24: Kellogg’s Breakfast to Go product launched in 2013

Nut and fruit gaining share among newly launched products

Figure 25: New launches in the China milk market, by ingredients, 2011-13

Figure 26: Banana milk products introduced by New Hope Dairy using pasteurised milk, Q3 2013

Figure 27: Mengniu wheat-flavoured breakfast milk introduced in Q3 2013

Market Size, Forecast and Segment Performance

Key points

Sales by segment

Figure 28: Retail value sales of milk and flavoured milk, by sector, 2011-13

Figure 29: Retail volume sales of milk and flavoured milk, by sector, 2011-13

Price increases drive the market

Figure 30: Retail value and volume sales of milk and flavoured milk in China, 2008-18

Steady but slowing growth expected in the milk market

Figure 31: Value retail sales of milk and flavoured milk in China, 2008-18

Figure 32: Volume retail sales of milk and flavoured milk in China, 2008-18

Forecast methodology

Brands and Companies

Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co., Ltd.

China Mengniu Dairy Co., Ltd.

Bright Dairy & Food Co., Ltd.

Want Want China Holdings Ltd

Market Share

Key points

The market is being consolidated

Figure 33: Manufacturers’ value shares in the milk and flavoured milk market, 2011 and 2012

Figure 34: Manufacturers’ volume shares in the milk and flavoured milk market, 2011 and 2012

The Consumer – Usage of Milk

Key points

Premium milk is gaining momentum

Figure 35: The change of frequency of buying milk in the last six months, January 2014

Figure 36: Lily Papaya Milk Drink introduced by Hung Fook Tong, Q1 2014

Parents of young children tend to increase their spending on milk

Figure 37: Proportion of consumers who spent more on milk in the past six months, by age of their children, January 2014

Figure 38: Multiple nutrition formula milk for children from Zhuang Yuan Mu Chang, Q1 2012

Figure 39: Milk powder for students from Bright Dairy and Food, Q1 2014

Pasteurised milk shows skew towards Southern China

Figure 40: Proportion of consumers who spent more on chilled plain milk in the past six months, by city, January 2014

Men in their twenties tend to increase their spending on flavoured milk

Figure 41: Proportion of consumers who spent more on flavoured milk in the past six months, by age and gender, January 2014

Young consumers and high earners increase their spending on skimmed milk

Figure 42: Change in frequency of buying milk in last six months – Skimmed/semi-skimmed milk, by demographics, January 2014

Older consumers spending more on premium milk

Figure 43: Consumer spending on premium milk in the past six months, by age, January 2014

Product origin drives spending on premium milk

Figure 44: Proportion of consumers who spent more on premium milk, by selected consideration factors, January 2014

Figure 45: Miralail’s premium New Zealand UHT milk with QR code highlighting product origin, Q3 2013

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The Consumer – Quality Associated with Different Types of Milk

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