Global Drug Forecast and Market Analysis to 2022

During the forecast period from 20122022, the growth of the UC market will be driven largely by the entry of Johnson & Johnsons (J&Js) Simponi and Takedas Entyvio, which will lead to an increase in the overall number of patients being treated with biologics in the US, 5EU, Japan, and Canada.
Another key event affecting the UC market is the anticipated launch of biosimilars, given that the patent expiry of the UC blockbusters, Remicade and Humira are set to expire in the US in 2018 and 2016, respectively. 

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  • Overall, major barriers to the growth of the UC market include  
  • Remicade and Humira losing patent protection in the midforecast
  • Austerity measures favoring generic prescribing
  • Biosimilars are predicted to face low uptake due to the lack of regulatory guidelines in some markets, such as the US

In 2012, GlobalData estimates that the global UC market reached $4.2 billion across the 10 healthcare markets covered in our forecast: the US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the UK, Japan, Canada, China, and India. By the end of the forecast period, in 2022, sales across these markets will grow steadily to reach $6.6 billion, representing a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 4.8% over the 10year timeframe.

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Key Questions Answered

  • How will the UC market (sales and patient numbers) evolve over the 10year forecast period from 2012 to 2022?
  • Which brands and specific drug classes did physicians select for their UC patients in 2012 and how do they foresee their prescribing behavior evolving over the next five years?
  • How will the launch of latestage pipeline therapies such as Entyvio and Kappaproct shape the future treatment landscape?
  • What are the remaining unmet needs and opportunities for drug developers within the UC market?

Key Findings
  • The UC market has predominantly been driven by two TNF blockers, namely J&Js Remicade and AbbVies Humira. Although these TNF blockers have monopolized the UC market for almost a decade, the balance is about to be tipped, with Takedas Entyvio imminently entering the market in 2014 and J&Js Simponi launching in 2014 as well, stealing market share from Humira and Remicade.
  • Remicade and Humira will also be hit by their respective loss of patent protection in 2018 (US), 2015 (EU) and 2016 (US), 2018 (EU). Europe has already approved a biosimilar to Remicade, Celltrions Remsima, which will be marketed by Hospira under the brand name Inflectra in the EU. Due to lack of regulatory guidelines and the current debate about indication extrapolation for biosimilars based on a clinical trial in one indication, initial biosimilar uptake will be low, but by the end of the forecast period, in 2022 infliximab, adalimumab and golimumab biosimilars are forecast to become an established part of the UC market.
  • During the coming decade, Europe is expecting the approval and launch of a UC colectomy rescue therapy, InDex Pharmaceuticals Kappaproct. Kappaproct is targeting a small patient population group, but due to the involvement of key gastroenterologists in the development of this therapy, it will likely be welcomed for use in this new treatment setting, which has never been addressed before by a pharmaceutical product. In addition, Pfizers Xeljanz is expected to face low uptake post its estimated launch in 2017, owing to the controversy surrounding its rejection by the EMA for its primary indication, rheumatoid arthritis.

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  • Overview of UC, including epidemiology, etiology, pathophysiology, symptoms, diagnosis, and current treatment options. 
  • Annualized UC therapeutics market revenue, annual cost of therapy and treatment usage pattern data from 2012 to 2022.
  • Key topics covered include strategic competitor assessment, market characterization, unmet needs, and implications for the UC therapeutics markets.
  • Pipeline analysis: comprehensive data split across different phases, emerging novel trends under development, and detailed analysis of late stage pipeline drugs.
  • Analysis of the current and future market competition in the global UC therapeutics markets. Insightful review of the key industry drivers, restraints and challenges. Each trend is independently researched to provide qualitative analysis of its implications.

Reasons to buy
  • Develop and design inlicensing and outlicensing strategies through a review of pipeline products and technologies, and by identifying the companies with the most robust pipeline. Additionally a list of acquisition targets included in the pipeline product company list.
  • Develop business strategies by understanding the trends shaping and driving the global UC therapeutics markets.
  • Drive revenues by understanding the key trends, innovative products and technologies, market segments, and companies likely to impact the global UC therapeutics markets in the future.
  • Formulate effective sales and marketing strategies by understanding the competitive landscape and by analyzing the performance of various competitors.
  • Identify emerging players with potentially strong product portfolios and create effective counterstrategies to gain a competitive advantage.
  • Track drug sales in the global UC therapeutics markets from 20122022.
  • Organize sales and marketing efforts by identifying the market categories and segments that present maximum opportunities for consolidations, investments and strategic partnerships.

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