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Global Hybrid and Pure Electric Cars 2014-2024: Technologies, Markets, Forecasts

Hybrid and Pure Electric Cars 2014-2024: Technologies, Markets, Forecasts 

E-cars are oversupplied and changing in all respects but in this frenzy of birth and death the future is being created with hybrid cars rapidly gaining market share now and sale of pure electric cars likely to take off in the second half of the coming decade as certain technical and cost challenges are resolved. Toyota and Tesla have hugely benefitted from correct market positioning but now Toyota is betting strongly on fuel cell hybrids and Tesla on mainstream pure electric cars - both graveyards for many companies in the past. A vicious shakeout of car and battery manufacturers has commenced with the winners expecting riches beyond the dreams of avarice.

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Table of Contents 

1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS 

1.1. The market for electric cars 

1.2. MicroEVs/quadricycles etc 

1.3. Hybrid vs pure EV forecasts 

1.4. Will cars be plugged in during a journey? 

1.5. Geographical demand 

1.6. Progress of the market leader Toyota 

1.7. Golf cars will have little growth 

1.8. Disruptive technology change 

1.9. Radically new components 

1.9.1. Electric motors 

1.9.2. Power electronics 

1.9.3. Wide band gap semiconductors 

1.9.4. Traction batteries 

1.10. Pure electric vehicles in Europe 

1.11. Toyota Simplifies Priorities: Tesla Gets Lonely 

2. INTRODUCTION 

2.1. The world wakes up to global warming and oil running out 

2.2. Danger signs 

2.3. Government support 

2.4. Rapid increase in number of manufacturers 

2.4.1. Can the grid cope? 

2.5. How green are electric vehicles really?

3. PURE ELECTRIC CARS 

3.1. The arguments against 

3.2. Deja vu 

3.2.1. Golf EVs 

3.2.2. Skateboard golf 

3.2.3. Energy positive solar car 

4. HYBRID CARS 

4.1. Construction and advantages of hybrids 

4.2. Evolution 

4.3. Market drivers

4.3.1. Leading indicators 

4.4. History of hybrids and planned models to 2014 

5. KEY ENABLING TECHNOLOGIES FOR CARS 

5.1. Three key enabling technologies become six 

5.2. Many new forms of range extender 

5.3. Supercapacitors 

5.4. Energy harvesting 

5.5. Printed electronics and electrics 

5.6. Structural components and smart skin 

5.7. Innovative charging 

5.8. Military land vehicles and in-wheel motors 

5.9. Third generation traction batteries 

6. HYBRID CAR MODES AND TECHNOLOGY 

6.1. Series vs parallel hybrid 

6.2. Modes of operation of hybrids 

6.2.1. Plug in hybrids 

6.2.2. Charge-depleting mode 

6.2.3. Blended mode 

6.2.4. Charge-sustaining mode 

6.2.5. Mixed mode 

6.3. Microhybrid is a misnomer 

6.4. Deep hybridisation 

6.5. Hybrid vehicle price premium 

6.6. Battery cost and performance are key 

6.7. Tradeoff of energy storage technologies 

6.8. Ultracapacitors=supercapacitors 

6.9. Where supercapacitors fit in 

6.10. Advantages and disadvantages 

6.11. Can supercapacitors replace batteries?

6.12. Supercabatteries or bacitors 

6.13. What is a range extender? 

6.14. What will be required of a range extender? 

6.15. Three generations of range extender 

6.15.1. First generation range extender technology 

6.15.2. Second generation range extender technology 

6.15.3. Third generation range extender technology

6.16. Fuel cell range extenders 

6.17. Big effect of many modest electricity sources combined 

6.18. Energy harvesting on and in electric vehicles 

6.19. Trend to high voltage 

6.20. Component choices for energy density/ power density 

6.21. Trend to distributed components 

6.22. Trend to flatness then smart skin 

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7. MARKET FORECASTS 

7.1. Car production 

7.2. Cars and crude oil 

7.2.1. Technical progress 

7.3. Hybrid cars 

7.3.1. History of hybrid car sales 

7.4. Forecasts to 2020 

7.5. Pure EVs 

7.5.1. Total market 

7.5.2. Will sales of pure electric cars overtake hybrids? 

7.5.3. Market excluding golf cars 

7.5.4. Golf cars

7.5.5. Fuel cell EVs 

7.6. Battery trends 

7.7. Gas stations by country 

7.7.1. What level of recharging infrastructure is needed? 

1.1. Global sales of electric, homologated, on-road cars number thousands 2013-2024, rounded 

1.2. Global sales of electric cars ex factory unit price in thousands of dollars, 2013-2024, rounded 

1.3. Global sales of electric cars total value in billions of dollars 2013-2024, rounded 

1.4. Value of the hybrid, pure electric and total electric car market in billions of dollars 2013-2024, rounded 

1.5. MicroEV quadricycle forecasts 2012-2024 

1.6. IDTechEx projection for global hybrid car sales (percentage) by territory 2010-2020 

1.7. Number sold by market leader Toyota of all hybrids globally, market share and market drivers 

1.8. Global sales of electric golf cars in number thousands, ex factory unit price in thousands of dollars and total value in billions of dollars 2013-2024, rounded 1.9. IDTechEx projections for global hybrid car sales units as % of total car sales 2009-2025 

1.10. Examples of traditional limitations and market trends by type of basic design of traction motor Those used mainly on large vehicles shown in green. Those on smaller vehicles and high performance vehicles and in-wheel shown red. 

2.1. European Green Car Initiative approximate R&D budget 2010 to 2013 in millions of Euros 

2.2. Over 80 examples of manufacturers and intending manufacturers of electric cars and car-like MicroEVs 

3.1. 15 examples of golf EV manufacturers 

4.1. Major market drivers for growth in hybrid sales 

4.2. Objectives of the Ricardo QinetiQ diesel hybrid vs the Prius gasoline hybrid 

4.3. Toyota Prius Sales by region 1997-2008 in thousands of units 

4.4. Hybrid electric vehicles and associated events 1876-2011 

6.1. Three generations of range extender with examples of construction, manufacturer and power output 

7.1. Crude oil prices 2003-2008 $/barrel 

7.2. Global oil reserves, production and life 

7.3. Value of the hybrid, pure electric and total electric car market in billions of dollars 2013-2024, rounded 

7.4. Toyota Prius Sales by region 1997-2008 in thousands of units 

7.5. Prius US sales in units 2000-2008 

7.6. Estimates for historical global hybrid car sales in units by territory with % of whole. 

7.7. Prius US sales in number and percent of US hybrid market 

7.8. IDTechEx projection for global hybrid car sales (percentage) by territory 2010-2020 

7.9. Number sold by market leader Toyota of all hybrids globally, market share and market drivers 

7.10. IDTechEx projections for global hybrid car sales units as % of total car sales 2009-2025 

7.11. Global sales of electric golf cars and motorised golf caddies in number thousands, ex factory unit price in thousands of dollars and total value in billions of dollars 2013-2024, rounded 

7.12. Fuel cell EVs compared with battery pure EVs and ICE hybrids 

7.13. Number of gas stations (\"service stations\") by region in 2010 

1.1. Global sales of electric cars number thousands, 2013-2024, rounded 

1.2. Global sales of electric cars ex factory unit price in thousands of dollars, 2013-2024, rounded 

1.3. Global sales of electric cars total value in billions of dollars 2013-2024, rounded 

1.4. Global pure electric car sales 2009-2020 excluding golf cars and cumulative number of new models since 2000 

1.5. IDTechEx projection for global hybrid car sales (percentage) by territory 2010-2020 

1.6. Number sold by market leader Toyota of all hybrids globally 

1.7. Rough count of new models of hybrid car from 2010-2014, one of the leading indicators of future hybrid car sales 

1.8. The dominant countries launching hybrid models from 2010-2014 

1.9. Distribution of electric vehicles in circulation according to model in 2013 plus the now defunct Fisker hybrid 

1.10. Number of electric 4-wheelers in Europe 

1.11. Number of electric 2-wheelers in Europe 

1.12. Tesla priorities in yellow by EV type in the IDTechEx number K market projection 2014-2024 

2.1. Geographical distribution of companies making or intending to make electric cars

2.2. Carbon Intensity CO2 kg/kWh and % Fossil fuel in power sector 

2.3. LCA greenhouse emissions of a compact car with different drive trains

2.4. Carbon emissions, in grams CO2 per km, of a selection of cars for sale in the UK 

3.1. TrouvĂ© pure EV car in 1881 

3.2. Red Bug pure EV in 1930 

3.3. Sinclair C5 

3.4. Aptera 

3.5. Gemcars 

3.6. Tonaro from China 

3.7. Suzhou Eagle two and four seat golf cars from China 

3.8. Yongkang Fourstar from China 

3.9. Shadong Wuzheng golf cars 

4.1. Evolution of EV design for on-road and many non-road vehicles 

4.2. Chevrolet Volt battery, generator and drive unit positioning 

4.3. Average annual fuel consumption in US gallons by vehicle type 

4.4. Toyota Prius Sales by region 1997-2008 in thousands of units 

4.5. Subaru\'s Viziv 2 Concept 

5.1. Examples of range extenders using a generator and ones with inherent electricity generation marked fuelgen 

5.2. Performance of new and improved supercapacitors and their variants 

5.3. Cars with photovoltaic harvesting. Top pure electric, bottom the hybrid Fisker Karma car 

5.4. Drayson pure electric racing car in the UK pioneers many new technologies including continuous charging and structural batteries 

5.5. Millenworks light hybrid vehicle ie not plug-in. 

6.1. Some hybrid variants 

6.2. Evolution of plug in vs mild hybrids 

6.3. Trend to deep hybridisation 

6.4. Evolution of hybrid structure 

6.5. Price premium for hybrid buses 

6.6. Three generations of lithium-ion battery with technical features that are sometimes problematical 

6.7. Battery price assisting price of hybrid and pure electric vehicles as a function of power stored. 

6.8. Probable future improvement in parameters of lithium-ion batteries for pure electric and hybrid EVs 

6.9. Comparison of battery technologies 

6.10. Where supercapacitors fit in 

6.11. Energy density vs power density for storage devices 

6.12. Indicative trend of charging and electrical storage for large hybrid vehicles over the next decade. 

6.13. Evolution of construction of range extenders over the coming decade 

6.14. Examples of range extender technology in the shaft vs no shaft categories 

6.15. Illustrations of range extender technologies over the coming decade with \"gen\" in red for those that have inherent ability to generate electricity 

6.16. The principle of the Proton Exchange Membrane fuel cells 

6.17. Trend of size of the largest (in red) and smallest (in green) fuel cell sets used in 98 bus trials worldwide over the last twenty years. 

6.18. Evolution of traction batteries and range extenders for large hybrid electric vehicles as they achieve longer all-electric range over the next decade. 

6.19. Main modes of rotational energy harvesting in vehicles 

6.20. Main forms of photovoltaic energy harvesting on vehicles 

6.21. Maximum power from the most powerful forms of energy harvesting on or in vehicles 

6.22. Hybrid bus with range improved by a few percent using solar panels 

6.23. Possible trend in battery power storage and voltage of power distribution 

6.24. Mitsubishi view of hybrid vehicle powertrain evolution 

6.25. Flat lithium-ion batteries for a car and, bottom, UAVs 

6.26. Supercapacitors that facilitate fast charging and discharging of the traction batteries are spread out on a bus roof 

7.1. Global bicycle and car production millions 

7.2. US oil production and imports 

7.3. HEV battery sales by type 2000-2006 

7.4. Toyota Prius Sales by region 1997-2008 in thousands of units 

7.5. US hybrid sales by month showing sharp drop in 2008 and early 2009 

7.6. Estimates for historical global hybrid car sales in units by territory with % of whole 

7.7. Prius US sales in number and percent of US hybrid market 

7.8. Hybrid vehicle sales by manufacturer 2000-2006 

7.9. Reported hybrid vehicle sales in the USA as a percentage of total new light vehicle sales in March 2009 

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7.10. Global hybrid vehicle market by country % 2007 

7.11. Hybrid vehicle purchases by state in the USA in units 2007 

7.12. US hybrid vehicle sales by manufacturer percentage 2007 

7.13. Hybrid vehicle sales by model 

7.14. 2006 forecast of total car sales by region 2006/2011 and 2016 in millions of units 

7.15. IDTechEx projection for global hybrid car sales (percentage) by territory 2010-2020 

7.16. Number sold by market leader Toyota of all hybrids globally and market drivers 

7.17. IDTechEx projections for global hybrid car sales units as % of total car sales 

7.18. Rechargeable battery sales by type 1972-2010

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