Market to Decline due to Key Patent Expiries
The global anti-hypertensives market is expected to decline during the forecast period at a negative Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 0.9% from $40 billion in 2013 to $37.6 billion in 2020, with growth expected from 2013 to 2017 at a CAGR of 2.6% and a decline thereafter. The initial growth will be due to the increased penetration of fixed-dose combination drugs (Amturnide, Exforge Tribenzor, Azor, Tekturna HCT, Edarbyclor, Twynsta, Benicar HCT, Micardis Plus, Tekamlo, Valturna), a rise in the prevalence population from 181 million to 190 million at a CAGR of 0.6%, and two new expected launches in the pipeline (azilsartan + amlodipine, and AHU377+ valsartan). However, due to the expiry of the exclusivity of major drugs both before and during the forecast period (Cozaar in 2010; Diovan, Avapro and Atacand in 2012; Exforge in 2014; Benicar in 2016; and Tekturna and Tekturna HCT in 2018), increased generic penetration and a low diagnosis rate, the market will decline from 2017. Hypertension is a chronic disease and so its management required prolonged treatment. The management of hypertension requires prolonged treatment as it is a chronic disease, ultimately ensuring market stability despite generic erosion.
Anti-Hypertensives Pipeline: Limited Scope
Most of the drugs in the anti-hypertensives pipeline are generics (77%), and only 20% of molecules are novel drug candidates. The novel approach is limited to a few targets such as nondihydropyridine dual L/T-type calcium channel blockers (ACT-280778), Rho-associated kinase inhibitors (AN-3485), and vitamin D receptor agonists (CARD-024), to name a few. Novartis’ AHU-377, a novel molecule that functions as a Neutral Endopeptidase Inhibitor (NEP), is currently in Phase III as a combination drug with Novartis’ blockbuster valsartan. Most of the drug dosages in the anti-hypertension market comprise one oral tablet once daily.
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