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Popular Report-Online Grocery Retailing - UK - March 2014-Market Survey, Growth Trends and Forecast

Grocers can cultivate greater shopper loyalty by encouraging cross-channel shopping: we think consumers are more likely to stick with those shoppers who are providing an integrated mix of supermarkets, online and c-stores that caters to different shopping missions.

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Table of Content

Introduction

Definitions

Market size and market shares

Financial definitions

VAT

Other

Abbreviations

Executive Summary

The market

Figure 1: Online grocery sales (incl. VAT), 2008-18

Figure 2: Online grocery sales as % of all food retailers’ sector sales and grocery retailers’ sector sales, 2008-18

Figure 3: Online grocery sales as % of all food retailers’ sector sales versus the % of respondents saying they do all/all or most of their grocery shopping online, 2011-13

Companies, brands and innovations

Figure 4: Leading online grocers’ shares of online grocery sales, 2012 and 2013

Sales growth 2013

Figure 5: Leading retailers: Estimated growth in online grocery sales, 2013

The consumer

Who shops for groceries online

Figure 6: The consumer: Usage of online grocery shopping, December 2013

Where they shop online

Figure 7: The consumer: Retailers used for the majority of grocery shopping, in-store and online: selected major retailers, December 2013

Non-grocery shopping and impulse buys online

Figure 8: The consumer: Attitudes and behaviour: impulse buys, December 2013

Figure 9: The consumer: Attitudes and behaviour: non-grocery shopping, December 2013

Why they shop online

Figure 10: The consumer: Reasons for shopping for groceries online, December 2013

What would encourage them to shop online

Figure 11: The consumer: What would encourage consumers to shop/shop more online, December 2013

What we think

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Issues and Insights

Why is per-shopper value less online?

The facts

The implications

So how should supermarkets be pushing the online channel?

The facts

The implications

So how can stores and online be integrated?

The facts

The implications

How big will online get?

The facts

The implications

Trend Application

Trend: Prepare for the Worst

Trend: FSTR HYPR

Mintel futures: Old Gold

Market Environment

Key points

Broadband connections

Figure 12: Percentage of all UK households having a broadband internet connection, total and by selected household type, 2013

Shopping and selling by device

Figure 13: The consumer: Percentage shopping or selling online in past three months, by device, September 2013

Figure 14: The consumer: Percentage of tablet owners and smartphone owners shopping online via tablets/smartphones in the past three months, September 2013

Consumer confidence

Figure 15: UK: Consumer confidence levels, February 2013-January 2014

Figure 16: Retail prices index and average weekly earnings: Annual % change, June 2010-December 2013

Figure 17: UK: Consumer prices index: Annual % change, January 2013-January 2014

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Consumer Spending on Key Categories

Key points

Food, drink and tobacco

Figure 18: UK: Breakdown of spending on food, beverages and tobacco, 2013

Figure 19: UK: Consumer spending on in-home food, beverages and tobacco (incl. VAT), 2009-14

Non-food FMCGs

Figure 20: UK: Consumer spending on personal care, household and over-the-counter pharmaceutical products (incl. VAT), 2009-14

Total potential market

Figure 21: UK: Estimated online grocery retail sales as proportion of spending on in-home food, beverages, tobacco and FMCGs, 2009-14

Market Size and Forecast

Key points

Growth slowed in 2013, may gain from Morrisons in 2014 and 2015

Figure 22: Online grocery sales (incl. VAT), 2008-18

The impact of Morrisons

Online still less than 5% of the food retail sector

Figure 23: Online grocery sales as % of all food retailers’ sector sales and grocery retailers’ sector sales, 2008-18

Gap between shopper numbers and online sales widens

Figure 24: Online grocery sales as % of all food retailers’ sector sales versus the % of respondents saying they do all/all or most of their grocery shopping online, 2011-13

Looking out to 2018

Figure 25: Online grocery sales (incl. VAT), at current and constant prices, 2008-18

Segments

Segment size and forecast: major online grocers

Figure 26: Online grocery sales, by major online grocers (incl. VAT), 2008-18

Just 4% of grocers’ sector sales are online

Figure 27: Online grocery sales by major online grocers as % of all grocers\' sector sales, 2008-18

Figure 28: Online grocery sales by major online grocers (incl. VAT), at current and constant prices, 2008-18

Segment size and forecast: specialist online retailers

Figure 29: Online grocery sales by small or specialist online grocery retailers (incl. VAT), 2008-18

Figure 30: Online grocery sales by small or specialist online grocery retailers (incl. VAT), at current and constant prices, 2008-18

Mintel’s forecast methodology

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